Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ 2026 Spring Statement is scheduled for Tuesday 3 March and is expected to take place just after midday.
But what could be in the Spring Statement and what could it mean for investors?
What is the Spring Statement and what could be in it?
Unlike the Autumn Budget, which can include sweeping ISA and pension reforms, as well as big spending and tax changes, the Spring Statement is usually more of an economic update than a policy overhaul.
And with no major policy changes expected, investors will be most interested in the Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) update on the UK economy.
However, for the first time in 16 years the OBR won’t be providing an assessment of how the government’s doing against its own fiscal rules. With so much talk over the budget ‘black hole’ over the last couple of years, many will see this as an odd exclusion.
Rachel Reeves will likely point to the recent good news of the highest ever surplus in any month since records began in 1993 to try and silence any doubters. And while the government does usually bring in more through taxes in January than any other month, the surplus is double last January’s figure.
However, capital gains tax (CGT) is an important part of the equation. We’ve seen some big changes to CGT rates and the annual allowance over the years and we could be starting to see these changes now show.
Some might see these numbers as a healthy start to the year, while others just as a seasonal uplift.
What it does mean is that investors will likely be looking for more detail in the upcoming statement, and that has the potential to move markets.
What could the Spring Statement mean for stock markets?
Most investors will be hoping for a boring and a fairly uneventful Spring Statement, and it’s likely we could get exactly that.
The ‘healthy’ start to the year could mean Reeves has a little more fiscal headroom than previously expected.
Now, that doesn’t mean we’re going to start seeing immediate tax cuts or spending splurges, but it could help reduce the pressure for further tightening in the nearer term.
And for investors, that matters.
If public finances appear more stable, it could help support confidence in UK government bonds, pound sterling and domestically-focused stocks. It may also lower the likelihood of needing further tax increases down the line, which could potentially leave the public with more pounds in their pockets to spend and invest, benefitting the economy.
On the other hand, if this surplus is driven largely by seasonal tax receipts and the economic update doesn’t help back up the more promising backdrop we’ve seen so far, markets could shift their focus back to the longer-term trajectory of borrowing and growth instead, creating more uncertainty.
So while the upcoming Spring Statement might not bring sweeping reforms, the updated forecasts, tone and general outlook could still shape expectations for what’s next for the economy.
And for investors, it’s often those expectations that move markets most.
How to prepare your investment portfolio for the Spring Statement
Headlines and expectations might have the ability to shift stock markets in the short term, but as investors it’s important to remain focused on the long term.
Being able to tune out the noise and stick to your financial plan is often what separates successful investors from the rest.
You don’t have to look far for an example.
Last April, markets were rocked by volatility following US President Donald Trump’s so-called ‘Liberation Day’. Yet within a week of the turmoil, US stock markets bounced back — rising 9.5% in a single day, the biggest one-day rally since the Global Financial Crisis in 2008. Of course, it’s important to remember that past performance isn’t a reliable guide to future returns.
Moments like these can help highlight an important truth, if you sell when markets fall, or even try to time any ‘bounce back’, you risk missing out on some of the strongest days when markets recover — and those days can make a significant difference to long-term returns.
While it looks unlikely, the Spring Statement could create some short-term uncertainty, but reacting emotionally rarely improves outcomes.
Your goals matter too and you should always have them in mind when making any investment decisions.
If it’s likely you’ll need the money you’re investing in the next few years, then it probably shouldn’t be in the stock market. Instead it could be worth considering something a little ‘safer’, but still has the potential to offer higher returns than a traditional savings account.
If you’re investing money you don’t need for at least a few years but stressing watching your portfolio rise and fall in value, then maybe your portfolio is too risky. You could consider adding some more diversification to help balance out the ups and downs.
Looking for more diversification? 4 ETF ideas
If you’re looking for UK ETF ideas or even ideas outside of the UK to help add some more diversification to your portfolio, here are four ETFs that could help.
For more details on each ETF, visit the factsheets and key investor information.
UK ETF ideas
Xtrackers GBP Overnight Rate Swap
This ETF aims to replicate the performance of the SONIA rate. SONIA stands for ‘Sterling Overnight Index Average’, and is the average interest rate banks lend money to each other overnight.
The ETF is aimed at investors looking for a ‘safer’ place to keep their money with a little more growth than a traditional savings account might offer. It invests in very short‑term, high‑quality debt from governments and companies, making it less risky. This fund may appeal to investors who need their money to be relatively accessible and want to avoid the ups and downs of the stock market.
JPM UK Equity Core
This ETF is designed to invest in a range of companies listed in the United Kingdom, focusing primarily on large and mid‑sized businesses.
It aims to provide investors with exposure to the UK equity market by tracking a diversified selection of stocks across various industries. The ETF includes companies that are known for their strong fundamentals and potential for growth, as well as those that may offer consistent income through dividends.
Investors who believe in the long‑term potential of UK companies and are looking to benefit from the economic activities of the region could find this ETF interesting. It could also help build a diversified portfolio without the stress of having to pick individual stocks.
Global ETF ideas
Invesco FTSE All-World
This ETF offers investors the opportunity to invest in a wide range of companies from across the globe, including both developed and emerging markets. It aims to mirror the performance of the FTSE All‑World index, providing diversified exposure to the world’s stock markets.
This ETF might appeal to those looking to spread their investment across different countries and sectors, potentially reducing risk while potentially benefiting from broad global market growth.
iShares MSCI World Minimum Volatility
This ETF aims to provide exposure to global stocks with potentially lower volatility compared to the broader market. It selects companies based on criteria expected to result in lower volatility.
This ETF might appeal to investors who are looking for potential growth in their investments, but are also conscious of risk and would like to limit exposure to large market swings.
Important information
Capital at risk. The value of your investments may go down as well as up, and you may get back less than you invest. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
ETF costs apply. If in doubt, you may wish to consult a professional adviser for guidance.